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Regular version of the site

Honorary Lecture by Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff at HSE ICEF

On January 15, Professor Larry Kotlikoff gave a talk on measuring inequality in lifetime spending power within different age cohorts in the USA, net tax rates facing Americans, and current wealth indicators.

Lawrence Kotlikoff is a highly distinguished economist with over 200 published papers and numerous books on economics of intergenerational relations, consumption, saving, taxation, public finance and personal finance, in which areas he is a global specialist and consultant. He has served as Chief Economic Advisor to the US President, many national (including Russian) and international organizations, and has been a candidate for US president himself (2012).

Professor Kotlikoff is well-known for his work questioning the importance of saving for retirement in determining total U.S wealth accumulation (with Lawrence Summers). Together with Alan Auerbach, Prof Kotlikoff developed the first large-scale computable general equilibrium life-cycle model of economies comprising of a large number of overlapping generations. He is also known as a very substantive critique of the existing approaches to measurement of inequality using existing macroeconomic indicators many of which, he claims, are ill-defined. He eloquently elaborated on that view during his HSE lecture, which has been attended by more than 150 faculty and students. In particular, he advocated the use of spending rather than current income as the real measure of people's lifetime wealth, as the former tends to be a more reliable and time-invariant indicator of lifetime earning abilities. Proper measurements of income and inequality are important to qualify the issues of capital accumulation dynamics advanced recently by Thomas Piketty, as well as to fiscal imbalances, progressivity and regressivity of the tax scales, intergenerational transfers, ecological sustainability and other aspects of global economic development.

The audience will definitely remember his presentation of lifetime budgetary plan illustrated using special Fiscal Analyzer software developed by his company, as well as a live illustration of the virtual character of current wealth indicators (proven by the destruction of a $10-bill in real time by one of the attending students).

 

See also:

Consumer Prices Decrease in Densely Populated Areas

HSE University economists have proposed a novel approach to modelling monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms and consumers. The results of collaborative research carried out by Alexander Tarasov from Moscow, his co-authors from HSE University–St Petersburg, together with the Norwegian School of Economics, the University of Pennsylvania, and the Free University of Brussels, have been published in American Economic Journal: Microeconomics.

Football Players Cover Greater Distances During Critical Derby Matches at Home Arena

Researchers at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences examined the level of effort that professional football players are willing to exert during a match in absence of financial incentives. It appears that the primary factors driving players to strive harder for victory are the strength of the opponent and the significance of the match for the club. This is particularly noticeable in derby matches between teams from the same city, such as the Moscow derby between CSKA and Spartak on April 25, 2024. The study has been published in the Journal of the New Economic Association

Participation in Crowdfunding Can Generate up to 73% in Returns Annually

Backers of projects on crowdfunding platforms can expect rewards from their pledges. For example, funding someone's idea on Kickstarter can result in an average annual return of 11.5%, with design projects known to deliver returns as high as 70%. However, it is important to note that these returns do not come in the form of direct cash payments but rather as savings on the purchase of the product once it hits the market. This has been demonstrated in a study by researchers at the HSE Faculty of Economics published in Economic Analysis Letters.

Economists Suggest Using Media's Attention to Bitcoin to Predict its Returns

Researchers at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have studied the relationship between the changes in the bitcoin prices and the media attention to this cryptocurrency. The researchers examined the mentions of bitcoin in the media between 2017 and 2021 and built a mathematical model that revealed the strong relationship between media attention and bitcoin prices. The study was published in the Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry journal.

HSE Economists Develop a Model for Sustainable Solar Geoengineering Agreements

Researchers at HSE University and George Mason University have investigated the sustainability of prospective international agreements on solar geoengineering. The authors have proposed a scheme in which payments flow from affluent nations to less wealthy ones; an arrangement which sets their proposal apart from traditional systems. The proposed model aims to dissuade more vulnerable countries from excessive use of the prevalent geoengineering method by providing compensation for the potential damage they may incur and supporting their adaptation to climate change. The paper has been published in Environmental and Resource Economics.

Crypto Investors Receive Downside Risk Premiums

Victoria Dobrynskaya, Assistant Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, has analysed the price dynamics of 2,000 cryptocurrencies from 2014 to 2021 and investigated the association between downside risks and average returns in the cryptocurrency market. As it turns out, cryptocurrencies exhibiting a greater risk tend to yield higher average returns. The study has been published in International Review of Financial Analysis.

The ICEF-CInSt Conference as a Platform for International Research Networking

On November 24–25, 2023, the 12th ICEF-CInSt International Finance Conference took place in Moscow. Researchers from Russia, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the USA, Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom contributed as speakers and discussants. The organisers and participants of the conference shared their impressions of the event with the HSE News Service.

Results of the Contest to Predict Nobel Prize Winners in Economics

Claudia Goldin's award was predicted by five people. They are Olga Peresypkina (RSVPU), Anastasia Sirotina (first-year student of the Bachelor's in Applied Mathematics and Information Science at HSE University), Mikhail Shabanov (Global Vision Asset Management LLC), Tatul Hayrapetyan (PhD student at the Stanford Graduate School of Business), and Hemant Kumar (Ettumanoorappan College, Kerala, India).

Financial Sector Risks Can Hinder Transition to Green Economy

According to HSE and MGIMO economists, increased financial sector risks in developed countries may be associated with a higher carbon footprint in banks' loan portfolios. This is likely due to the fact that in response to an unstable economic situation, banks tend to issue more loans to companies that have a detrimental impact on the environment. Although this might yield short-term profits for the banks, such trends hinder humanity's progress towards achieving a green economy. The paper has been published in Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

Winner of 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics Announced

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2023 to Claudia Goldin (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA), ‘for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes.’ According to the Nobel committee, Professor Goldin has uncovered key factors that determine gender differences in the labour market.